01 Yam cuam tshuam rau cov nqi hlau
(1) Tus nqi ntawm cov hlau ore xa los ntawm Australia thiab Brazil mus rau Tuam Tshoj tseem nce ntxiv
Txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 17 txog rau Lub Rau Hli 23, 2024, tag nrho cov hlau ore xa los ntawm Australia thiab Brazil yog 28.328 lab tons, poob ntawm 280,000 tons ntawm lub hli dhau los. Australia cov khoom xa tuaj yog 20.596 lab tons, qhov txo qis ntawm 301,{10}} tons ntawm lub hli dhau los, uas Australia cov khoom xa tuaj rau Tuam Tshoj yog 18.099 lab tons, nce 244,{14}} tons ntawm lub hli dhau los. Brazil cov khoom xa tuaj yog 7.731 lab tons, nce 22,{18}} tons ntawm lub hli dhau los. Tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj thoob ntiaj teb rau lub sijhawm no yog 33.38 lab tons, txo qis ntawm 1.17 lab tons ntawm lub hli dhau los.
Txawm hais tias thoob ntiaj teb hlau ore xa khoom poob qis rau lub lim tiam dhau los, tus nqi ntawm cov hlau ore xa mus rau Tuam Tshoj txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab cov nyiaj hlau ore tuaj txog ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj kuj tau nce ib hlis ib hlis. Txawm li cas los xij, steel mills 'cov khoom lag luam rov ua dua tsis muaj zog, thiab steel zeb hlau ore cov khoom lag luam tseem tsawg. Chaw nres nkoj hlau ore cov khoom lag luam tseem muaj siab, txo qis tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov hlau ore, tsis muaj nqi txhawb nqa, thiab tsis zoo rau cov nqi hlau.
(2): Kev muag khoom hauv tsev ntawm excavators yuav tsum nce li ntawm 20% xyoo-rau-xyoo nyob rau lub Rau Hli
Raws li cov hauv paus kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam, CME kwv yees tias qhov muag ntim ntawm excavators (nrog rau kev xa tawm) nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2024 yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 16, 000 units, nce li ntawm 1.5% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab kev ua lag luam yuav maj mam rov zoo. Kev muag khoom lag luam hauv tsev yog kwv yees li 7,300 units, nce ze li ntawm 20% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Kev lag luam xa tawm kev muag khoom yog kwv yees li 8,700 units, txo qis ze li ntawm 10% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Raws li CME cov ntaub ntawv soj ntsuam, txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli 2024, Tuam Tshoj tag nrho kev muag khoom ntawm excavators poob li ntawm 6% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab kev poob qis txuas ntxiv mus. Ntawm lawv, kev ua lag luam hauv tsev tau nce 4% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab cov khoom lag luam xa tawm kev muag khoom poob los ntawm 14% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Cov ntaub ntawv tau txhim kho lub hli dhau ib hlis txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis.
Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias kuv lub teb chaws kev muag khoom ntawm excavators tau nce xyoo-rau-xyoo, cov khoom vaj khoom tsev ruaj khov nce xyoo-rau-xyoo, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab qhov kev thov rau steel nthuav dav, thaum lub vaj tse kev tsim kho vaj tse kev lag luam txuas ntxiv poob xyoo- nyob rau hauv lub xyoo, tab sis qhov poob yog nqaim. Kev xav tau ntawm vaj tse thiab kev ntseeg siab tseem tsis txaus, tab sis xav tias trillion-yuan cov nyiaj khaws cia hauv xyoo 2023 yuav nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam thaum Lub Rau Hli, ua rau qee qhov kev xav tau pib, uas yog qhov zoo rau cov nqi hlau.
(3) Lub Xeev Lub Tuam Txhab Tswj Dej Nyab Xeeb thiab Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb tau nce qib kev nyab xeeb thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev rau qib 3 rau Zhejiang, Anhui thiab Jiangxi
Raws li kev kwv yees ntawm lub chaw saib xyuas huab cua, txij lub Rau Hli 24 txog rau 30, yuav muaj dej nag hnyav ntxiv nyob rau sab qaum teb ntawm Jiangnan, sab hnub tuaj thiab sab qab teb ntawm Jianghan, Jianghuai thiab lwm qhov chaw, thiab cov kwj ntawm nruab nrab thiab qis dua. Kev mus txog ntawm tus dej Yangtze yuav muaj qhov nce siab hauv dej. Central Meteorological Observatory tau ceeb toom liab rau nag hnyav thaum 10:00 hnub tim 24. Raws li "National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan", Lub Xeev Tswj Dej Nyab Xeeb thiab Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb tau nce qib dej nyab xeeb rau lub xeev Zhejiang, Anhui thiab Jiangxi mus rau Qib 3 ntawm 12:00 thaum Lub Rau Hli 24, thiab xa ib pab neeg ua hauj lwm ntxiv mus rau Zhejiang los pab coj kev tswj dej nyab thiab kev pab dej nyab. Cov pab pawg ua haujlwm tau xa mus ua ntej txuas ntxiv mus ua haujlwm hauv pem hauv ntej hauv Anhui, Jiangxi thiab lwm qhov chaw.
Tsis ntev los no, huab cua huab cua nrog qhov kub thiab txias nyob rau sab qaum teb thiab cov nag hnyav nyob rau sab qab teb tau maj mam tshwm sim. Lub Xeev Lub Tuam Txhab Tswj Dej Nyab Xeeb thiab Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb tau nce qib dej nyab thaum muaj xwm txheej ceev rau Zhejiang, Anhui thiab Jiangxi txhawm rau txhim kho kev paub txog kev tiv thaiv kev puas tsuaj ntuj tsim thiab tiv thaiv lub neej thiab vaj tse ntawm tib neeg. Txawm li cas los xij, kev txhim kho kev txhim kho ntawm cov phiaj xwm davhlau ya nyob twg tau cuam tshuam loj heev, qhov kev thov rau cov hlau tau poob qis, qhov kev xav tau hauv kev lag luam tau raug txwv, thiab kev ua haujlwm siab ntawm cov khoom siv tseem nyob. Qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov tau maj mam tshwm sim, uas yog bearish rau tus nqi sib txawv ntawm steel.
02 Spot kev lag luam feem ntau ruaj khov tab sis tsis muaj zog
Ntawm 24 lub tsev cov khoom lag luam, 22 lub khw poob los ntawm 10-70 yuan / tuj, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 20mmHRB400E rebar yog 3611 yuan / tuj, txo qis ntawm 30 yuan / tuj los ntawm hnub ua lag luam dhau los;
Ntawm 24 lub khw muag khoom kub dov, 22 lub khw poob los ntawm 10-40 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 4.75 kub dov kauj yog 3733 yuan / ton, txo qis ntawm 27 yuan / tuj los ntawm hnub ua lag luam dhau los. ;
Ntawm 23 lub lag luam nruab nrab thiab tuab phaj, 19 lub khw poob los ntawm 10-50 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 14-20 hli nruab nrab phaj yog 3803 yuan / ton, txo ntawm 19 yuan / tuj los ntawm hnub trading dhau los.
Los ntawm 9:00 Lub Rau Hli 24, Shougang Changzhi tau txo qis tus nqi ntawm rebar, coil thiab xaim los ntawm 50 yuan / tuj. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 24, Shandong Steel txo tus nqi coj ntawm rebar hauv Jinan cheeb tsam los ntawm 100 yuan.
03 Yav tom ntej tseem ntsuab thiab nqis mus
Lub Rau Hli 24, lub ntsiab dub rebar poob 54, kaw ntawm 3532, poob ntawm 1.51%; lub ntsiab kub dov coil poob 42, kaw ntawm 3729, poob ntawm 1.11%; lub ntsiab coking thee poob 37, kaw ntawm 1543, poob ntawm 2.34%; lub ntsiab coke poob 48, kaw ntawm 2195, poob ntawm 2.14%; hlau ore poob 25.5, kaw ntawm 795.5, poob ntawm 3.11%.
